2015 Season Preview or The Virtue of Mostly Wild Guesses

             So the 2015 is finally upon us. Well…almost. There has been one “game” played already this pre-season, Hard Knocks debuted last night with what could be the first exciting season since the Jets collective comic genius graced our screens, and I promise not to mention the Brady/Goodell Fight of the Century after this sentence explaining how I’m not going to mention it. I wanted to do a bit of a season preview, picks and what-not. It won’t be your typical pick post, but hopefully it will be interesting and I won’t end up having too much egg on my face come February. The teams are listed in no particular order (except within the respective divisions). I haven’t worked out guesses on overall record, because my head hurt just thinking about doing that. We’ll break it down by division and conference, I’ll give you my two cents on each team and we’ll see where the night takes us.

                  Let’s do this from left to right, and start in the west:

AFC WEST

                  Denver is going to win this division. Even with Peyton (yes…Manning, Commissioner) being not exactly a sure thing after his injuries last season and his age (I mean, he’s an entire year older than I am…that’s old). Honestly, the guy is impressive and I would be hesitant to bet against him in the regular season.

Peyton Manning

Kansas City needs an offense. I like Alex Smith, but I’m not sure he’s the guy. They have a nightmare schedule to start the year, but will improve as their schedules decreases in difficulty. In order to avoid a 2-2 start, they are really going to need to put up a lot of points.

Two more years and Oakland is going to be a tough team. Derek Carr and Khalil Mack are stars in the making. Give the team some time to put more pieces around them and they are going to do great things. I don’t see them being above .500 this season though, in fact, if they hit .500 I’ll be impressed.

San Diego, on the other hand, should get to .500. They have some tough road games and I still don’t buy Philip Rivers as an elite QB. Not much to say beyond that. If he steps up, the Chargers could make this division interesting.

NFC WEST

                  Seattle is clearly the class of the NFC West. There really is little doubt about that. Adding Jimmy Graham is huge and that defense is still…that defense. They should be strong throughout the season and emerge a major player once the games become win-or-go-home.

Richard Sherman

                  Arizona should make this season interesting. Not really for the division, but I see them being around the Wild Card discussion. The big test will come in the home stretch. They finish the season with Philadelphia, Green Bay, and Seattle.

                  St. Louis has a defense that will turn heads. This seems to be a theme in the league right now, though. You win games by scoring points and I don’t see this offense outscoring too many teams. Fisher is one of my favorite coaches, and he has his work cut out.

                  I’m not going to say much about San Francisco. I feel for them, I truly do. The number of retirements and arrests, all happening at once, is mind-boggling. This is an entirely new defense and Kaepernick really needs to show something this year.

AFC NORTH

                  Cincinnati is my pick here. They have a relatively easy run at the end of the season and Andy Dalton has proven that winning in the regular season is not his issue. I still don’t think they’ll win a playoff game, but they will be representing their division.

Devon Still

                  Baltimore should have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. With a combination of travel length and early season road matchups (5 of first 7), they will miss out on the division. The scary thing is that they will probably grab a wildcard slot and Flacco is dangerous when it counts.

                  Pittsburgh will be strong. They and Baltimore will battle for a wildcard position. Their secondary is a concern, but the front 4 are tough as they come. I have a hard time counting out a QB who seems to extend plays and complete highlight-reel passes almost by accident.

                  Cleveland is a bit of a train-wreck. They have no idea who should be the starter at QB (that will obviously change, but is the best option even wearing an orange helmet currently?). They have a ridiculously tough schedule to boot.

NFC NORTH

                  This is another division where the separation is vast. Aaron Rodgers is coming off of another fantastic season and Green Bay looks just as strong. This one isn’t close, my friends. The worst thing I can say is that they won’t go undefeated at home.

Aaron Rodgers

                  Minnesota has a tough schedule and a lot of unknowns. They have a tough opening half of the schedule and then finish with 3 of their last five against playoff teams from last year. Look for Adrian Peterson to have vengeance on his mind and wanting to do some damage.

                  Detroit is one of those teams that constantly look to make a break, on the surface. However, their schedule and inexperience work against them. Add to that, I just don’t believe in Matthew Stafford. I think they will win a few games, but won’t do much more.

                  Chicago won’t surprise anyone this year. They are the bottom of this division and I don’t see them doing much to improve on a pathetic 2014. If Jay Cutler can show some consistency, they could prove me wrong. I wouldn’t bet on that happening though.

  

AFC SOUTH

                  As much as I wish I could put Houston on top in the South, it will probably be Indianapolis. Andrew Luck is an elite QB (Mind you, still not on the level of Brady, Peyton, or Rodgers). They have added several new weapons around him, and have some fortunate scheduling to play both the Patriots and Broncos at home.

Andrew Luck

                  Houston is fast becoming Foxborough-south. Bill O’Brien and his staff have a strong New England pedigree. They are instilling that same ethos deep in the heart of Texas. Adding Vince Wilfork makes that front 4 very, very scary. Their starting QB is up in the air, but I think the Texans will turn some heads.

                  Tennessee is saddled with a young offense, but a vastly improved defense. They won’t put up too many fights, but it will be interesting to watch this defense improve and also the progression of Mariota into an NFL starter.

                  I guess I should say something about Jacksonville. They have one of the easier schedules in the league, that’s a big help. They also have one of the younger teams in the league. They will improve and they will win some games. Bortles has to turn a corner to make this happen.

NFC SOUTH

                  This is a tough division to call. I think that, ultimately, New Orleans will get the edge. They have oodles of talent and they also have Drew Brees. He is an old-school fighter. The biggest difference needs to be a return to dominance at home.

                  Carolina is going to give the Saints a fight. That is a quality team and we have all seen what Cam Newton can do when he decides to throw that offense on his shoulders. The man is a freak. The defense should improve on an impressive 2014 campaign.

Lavonte David

                  Atlanta is one of those teams that I just can’t put my finger on the reason why they aren’t better. They have talent, experience, they pay in a dome. They do have a reasonably light schedule and I see that defense improving under Dan Quinn.

                  Tampa Bay is going to be starting Jameis Winston. I don’t see it being a crash of Manziel-ian proportions, but I do predict a steep learning curve. The defense is solid, and that should keep the Bucs competitive in some of their games.

AFC EAST

                  New England will have Brady for all 16 games (I’m assuming…I could be wrong, no one actually has any clue what’s going on), and he is not happy with the league. That does not bode well for everyone else. Even if he sits the first 4, that means his legs and arm are even more fresh come playoff time. Losing Revis and Browner is a shot, but there is young talent in the secondary.

Aside: I know I said I wouldn’t talk about the case, sorry. And also, I’m sorry for the one mention of it earlier. End of aside

                  Miami made big strides in the offseason, some more questionable than others. Tannehill will need a career year to get this team over the hump and into the playoffs. They have a tough schedule but I’m sure that Ndamukong Suh will dominate.

Ndamukong Suh

                  Buffalo is my sleeper team. Even without a legitimate QB, that defense is going to be stout. Say what you want (and I have, over the years) about what a goofball Rex Ryan is…the man knows defense. If they sort the QB issue, this could be a dangerous team.

                  New York J-E-T-S...Holy CRAP!!! This is the best comedy troupe I have witnessed in a long, long time. Thank God for the Jets! I cannot fathom how this group functions. Who, in their right mind, allows their starting QB to get cold cocked in the locker room even if he deserved it?! Jets won’t be a contender.

NFC EAST

                  Dallas is going to be there this year. They will win this division, because Dez Bryant is now a happy (read: rich) man, a fairly easy schedule, and a fantastic defense. I don’t think it is much of a stretch to state that they are the cream of this division.

                  Philadelphia is another one of those teams who, on paper, doesn’t look all that good. Somehow, Chip Kelly is able to get results where it matters. There have been several key changes that will make for entertaining football in the City of Brotherly Love.

Niles Paul

                  New York Giants are a mystery. The NFC East, in general, is such a tough division to call. I think the Giants will win some big games and they always seem to turn it on as the temperature drops. Tom Coughlin continues to surprise and he will put a competitive team on the field, just missing some fingers.

                  Washington is the only team that I can comfortably, emphatically, rule out of winning the East. They are rebuilding and aren’t even fully sure of what they have in the way of materials. Is RG3 the way forward? Can he become a drop-back QB? We’ll see as the season unfolds.

                  Well, there you have it. My, mostly pulled out of thin air, predictions for each division. Let me know your thoughts, pro or con. Next week, I will talk about the playoffs and what we can expect in the run-up to Super Bowl 50.

2015 Baseball Hall of Fame Inductions

As I mentioned in a previous post; this summer, I had the great privilege to return, after nearly 20 years, to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY. It was a wonderful experience and something which I need to do more often going forward. Seeing the history of the game, the gloves, the uniforms, the pieces of our shared history on display. I am a huge nerd for the history of baseball. I grew up playing baseball in a baseball-crazy suburb of a baseball-crazy city. I played in my front yard and in parks, on our quiet street, and in a ridiculously opulent Little League complex. I played from 1^st grade until high school, never a threat to go any further, but I loved the game. Studying the game, watching my beloved Red Sox be terrible, then tease with brilliance, only to let us down.

Andre Dawson

Before 2004, I often had arguments with Cubs fans over which was worse; loving the Red Sox or loving the Cubs (since 2004, the Cubs fans pretty clearly win that argument). Little bit of a recap here: the Cubs went to the World Series in 1945, something about a goat, and they haven’t been back since. Yeah, the saga of Steve Bartman is tragic, but he’s not the one who gave up 8 runs. The Sox, on the other hand, went to the World Series in 1946, lost in 7 games on a wild play that is still discussed today. Then the Impossible Dream season of 1967, heartbreak for the underdog (also 7 games). 1975 saw the boys push yet another series to 7 games, losing again. The drama this time coming in the game 6 heroics. Then there’s game 6 of the 1986 World Series, referred to me once as the darkest day in Boston since John F. Kennedy was killed (I’m not kidding. Baseball-crazy town, remember?).  

1986 World Series

True, they lost in 7 games…again, but the series was practically over before the game 6 fireworks of wild pitches and players who shouldn’t even have been in the game. There were more heartbreaks to come, but that one was the day my childhood ended. Not to sound overly dramatic, but years later, in the 1994 movie “The Crow”, Michael Wincott makes a scary, but wonderfully deep line: “Childhood’s over the moment you know you’re going to die”. I realized that the good guys didn’t always win, that sometimes you can work for something and still lose. There was a certain finality in my 10 year-old mind that was brought to the fore. Dramatic playoff losses in the 90s just cemented my feelings of despair. It is said that the Red Sox are the reason why we New Englanders are so cynical. How’s that for you? Over generations, a baseball has impacted the entire attitude of a region. That got away from me a little bit. Bear with me, I’m going somewhere good.

                 

Pedro Martinez

A diminutive Dominican pitcher showed up in Boston and the attitude almost immediately changed. He brought a flair and panache that we hadn’t seen in a long time. It took a few years, but we were allowed to hope again. His fastball was legendary, his style even more so. The 1999 All-Star game, striking out 5 of the first 6 batters he faced. Not scrubs, mind you, but the best the National League had on offer that year. 2000 is still regarded as one of the finest single seasons ever by a pitcher. We’re going to skip over 2003, mostly because it brought back too many of those feelings of despair. 2004, our hope and longing were finally realized. Every Red Sox fan can tell you where they were when Kevin Millar drew the most exciting walk in baseball history, when Dave Roberts stole on Mariano Rivera, realizing full-well that everyone watching knew he was going to run. Bill Mueller driving in the tying run and Roberts spinning with joy as he slid across home plate. David Ortiz finished the lucid dream with a ball that soared into the night sky. It was as if we were living The Natural. This kind of thing didn’t happen to us. Hope springs eternal, we had Pedro, and we had Schilling. We had a self-proclaimed bunch of “Idiots” who didn’t know they were supposed to lose. That season resurrected my childhood. Pedro Martinez did that.

                 

Randy Johnson

Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, Craig Biggio and Pedro Martinez all impacted the game in their own ways. Biggio was a sparkplug who ignited a passion for baseball in a city that became a baseball town. He was consistent, self-sacrificing, the ultimate team player. John Smoltz was a part of, arguably, the greatest pitching rotation the game had ever seen. He was a workhorse, again doing whatever was needed for the team. He has more than 200 wins AND more than 150 saves. That doesn’t happen, at least it isn’t supposed to happen. Randy Johnson overcame location issues to record more than 4800 strikeouts. He earned 300 career wins (more wins in his 40s than in his 20s). All of these players impacted the game in incredible ways.

Craig Biggio

Their numbers make them automatic members of a very exclusive fraternity. More than 18,000 men have played in the major leagues and only 244 players have been inducted into the hall. That’s pretty incredible. Pedro is the one, to me, who had the most direct impact, but the other three are giants in a game which I love. Congratulations to the entire class of 2015.

                  The speeches yesterday all came from the heart and moved me in different ways. I could feel the sense of wonderment as Craig Biggio talked about his career. All of his hard work and all of his sacrifices were being rewarded. John Smoltz made some wonderful comments about young players needing to enjoy the game and not worry so much about having a 12-6 curve before they can drive a car. That seemed to be a theme, the feeling that baseball is to be treasured and enjoyed. Randy Johnson talked about seeing the joy on his son’s face as that 300^th win was being solidified. He, of the permanent scowl, was most impressed by a feeling of joy.

John Smoltz

A man who overcame personal tragedy and adapted the best he could. Seeing him on stage, with his camera, fully embracing the event, was fantastic. And that brings us back to Pedro. One more quote, this one from the classic movie (admit it, you love this movie) Mr. Baseball: “Baseball is a game, and games are supposed to be fun”.  Talk about someone who just embodies Tom Selleck’s insight into the game of baseball. He spent time heckling Kevin Millar, he had a smile that could not be removed. He spoke with passion and a bubbling joy that was plain to see. This is the heart of baseball. The joy of playing a game, and these four players did it as well as anyone ever has…well on par with their 240 legendary peers.

Baseball HOF Class of 2015

The Waiting Game

We are in a bit of a football lull, at the moment. Not too much going on in the way of news or scandal. The draft is long done. Greg Hardy and Tom Brady have both had their appeals. Voluntary camps have closed and now it is a waiting game until camps open up. This is the calm before the storm.

                  For those of us who love football, this can be a trying time of year. Thank God that the NFL network is there for a continuous loop of all things football. I find myself watching that channel more at this time of year than even during the season. I actually spent an hour yesterday watching a ludicrously detailed history of the Super Bowl Halftime show. It was, honestly, pretty interesting. From the first twenty or so games with winter-themed extravaganzas or the cavity inducing, saccharine sweetness of Up With People, to the Fox network stealing viewers and the NFL shooting back with Michael Jackson the next year.

Michael Jackson at Super Bowl XXVII

The Super Bowl was about the game. That’s not to say that the current iteration is worse. It is what it is; a football game with a longer than normal halftime and an absurd amount of focus put on the non-football aspects of the evening. This can, and does, make the game enjoyable for the fans whose teams are not in the mix. It is one way that the league has guaranteed viewership over the last 49 games. All of this is part of what makes the yearly spectacle as grand as it can be. I have watched championship games in multiple sports, with passionate fans, and nothing is on par with the Super Bowl. The closest that I have ever witnessed was watching an Australian Rules Football Grand Final. That was an experience, primarily because I watched it with a bunch of Australians. But nothing else seems to have the immediacy and passion that comes with the Super Bowl. Baseball, Hockey, Basketball…all play a championship series. I am not meaning to take anything away from those. Arguably, a series is a more definitive way to crown a champion. It is fairer. It is a more complete and accurate representation of who was the better team. As the saying goes: “Any given Sunday…” a ball bounces the wrong way, a poor call by the officials, a usually sure handed receiver drops a catch that he would make 999 times out of 1000 (yes, I’m still a little bitter about Wes Welker, although he is obviously not the only reason that particular game was lost). A series gives you a chance to come back and fight tomorrow, until there are no tomorrows left. A single game fills with passion, a fight to the death, a hair-raising drive, and waves of emotion which turn on a proverbial dime.

Chris Matthews TD reception

I cannot begin to describe the highs and lows that gripped me during this past Super Bowl.

Malcolm Butler Interception

I am at a loss to think of many moments in my life that have seen so many ups and downs in such a short span of time. The World Series/League Championship Series or the Stanley Cup Playoffs have been good to me at times. Giving me wonderful memories and more than my share of heart-breaking ones. But one game runs into the next, I remember jumping out of my seat as Koji Uehara picked off Kolton Wong at first, to end the game. However, I struggle to remember exactly which game it was. Now, because I am a giant nerd (and it was only two years ago) I can tell you that it was Game 4. But it took me a second to remember. Dave Roberts stealing second off of Mariano Rivera when everyone in the country knew that he was running.

Dave Roberts stealing 2nd

Tim Thomas standing on his head for 7 games in probably the most lop-sided series, to actually go the full 7 games, in hockey history. The lights going out at Boston Garden in game 4 of the ’88 Stanley Cup Finals. Bird stealing the inbounds pass. My point here is that there are memories of the games that transcend and burn themselves into our minds. A series is more egalitarian, but a single championship game is ruthless, it is brutal. It will tear your heart out and feel joy in your suffering. More than the needed recovery time in football, the reason I believe there is a single game is simple…the fans’ hearts couldn’t take a series.

As a child and teenager, I remember the excitement, the anticipation that went into Super Bowl Sunday. It was almost a religious experience. I rooted for a bad football team that had one good run, then nothing for over a decade, then nothing for another half a decade. The fact that they were so bad was almost endearing. It didn’t change the fact that I waited for Super Bowl Sunday with a level of anticipation normally held only for Christmas. I loved my team, but the fact that they weren’t in the game didn’t matter. The games I remember fondly, but the experiences I remember more so. We always had big parties at our house. Friends, neighbors, sometimes even complete strangers all congregated at our house for the game. I can tell you precise details about almost every one that I witnessed. I can tell you what I was wearing, what we were eating, or who was there. In a series, it is just about the game, but the Super Bowl makes it an all-inclusive ride.

So here we are…back in the waiting game. Everyone has hope of winning this coming year. In a modern example of Schrödinger’s thought experiment, as long as the proof of a result is not witnessed, any outcome is possible.

Browns rookie OLB Nate Orchard

There is endless optimism…even in Cleveland.