Thursday, August 13, 2015

2015 Season Preview or The Virtue of Mostly Wild Guesses

             So the 2015 is finally upon us. Well…almost. There has been one “game” played already this pre-season, Hard Knocks debuted last night with what could be the first exciting season since the Jets collective comic genius graced our screens, and I promise not to mention the Brady/Goodell Fight of the Century after this sentence explaining how I’m not going to mention it. I wanted to do a bit of a season preview, picks and what-not. It won’t be your typical pick post, but hopefully it will be interesting and I won’t end up having too much egg on my face come February. The teams are listed in no particular order (except within the respective divisions). I haven’t worked out guesses on overall record, because my head hurt just thinking about doing that. We’ll break it down by division and conference, I’ll give you my two cents on each team and we’ll see where the night takes us.
                  Let’s do this from left to right, and start in the west:

AFC WEST
                  Denver is going to win this division. Even with Peyton (yes…Manning, Commissioner) being not exactly a sure thing after his injuries last season and his age (I mean, he’s an entire year older than I am…that’s old). Honestly, the guy is impressive and I would be hesitant to bet against him in the regular season.

Peyton Manning

Kansas City needs an offense. I like Alex Smith, but I’m not sure he’s the guy. They have a nightmare schedule to start the year, but will improve as their schedules decreases in difficulty. In order to avoid a 2-2 start, they are really going to need to put up a lot of points.
Two more years and Oakland is going to be a tough team. Derek Carr and Khalil Mack are stars in the making. Give the team some time to put more pieces around them and they are going to do great things. I don’t see them being above .500 this season though, in fact, if they hit .500 I’ll be impressed.
San Diego, on the other hand, should get to .500. They have some tough road games and I still don’t buy Philip Rivers as an elite QB. Not much to say beyond that. If he steps up, the Chargers could make this division interesting.

NFC WEST
                  Seattle is clearly the class of the NFC West. There really is little doubt about that. Adding Jimmy Graham is huge and that defense is still…that defense. They should be strong throughout the season and emerge a major player once the games become win-or-go-home.
Richard Sherman

                  Arizona should make this season interesting. Not really for the division, but I see them being around the Wild Card discussion. The big test will come in the home stretch. They finish the season with Philadelphia, Green Bay, and Seattle.
                  St. Louis has a defense that will turn heads. This seems to be a theme in the league right now, though. You win games by scoring points and I don’t see this offense outscoring too many teams. Fisher is one of my favorite coaches, and he has his work cut out.
                  I’m not going to say much about San Francisco. I feel for them, I truly do. The number of retirements and arrests, all happening at once, is mind-boggling. This is an entirely new defense and Kaepernick really needs to show something this year.

AFC NORTH
                  Cincinnati is my pick here. They have a relatively easy run at the end of the season and Andy Dalton has proven that winning in the regular season is not his issue. I still don’t think they’ll win a playoff game, but they will be representing their division.
Devon Still

                  Baltimore should have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. With a combination of travel length and early season road matchups (5 of first 7), they will miss out on the division. The scary thing is that they will probably grab a wildcard slot and Flacco is dangerous when it counts.
                  Pittsburgh will be strong. They and Baltimore will battle for a wildcard position. Their secondary is a concern, but the front 4 are tough as they come. I have a hard time counting out a QB who seems to extend plays and complete highlight-reel passes almost by accident.
                  Cleveland is a bit of a train-wreck. They have no idea who should be the starter at QB (that will obviously change, but is the best option even wearing an orange helmet currently?). They have a ridiculously tough schedule to boot.

NFC NORTH
                  This is another division where the separation is vast. Aaron Rodgers is coming off of another fantastic season and Green Bay looks just as strong. This one isn’t close, my friends. The worst thing I can say is that they won’t go undefeated at home.
Aaron Rodgers

                  Minnesota has a tough schedule and a lot of unknowns. They have a tough opening half of the schedule and then finish with 3 of their last five against playoff teams from last year. Look for Adrian Peterson to have vengeance on his mind and wanting to do some damage.
                  Detroit is one of those teams that constantly look to make a break, on the surface. However, their schedule and inexperience work against them. Add to that, I just don’t believe in Matthew Stafford. I think they will win a few games, but won’t do much more.
                  Chicago won’t surprise anyone this year. They are the bottom of this division and I don’t see them doing much to improve on a pathetic 2014. If Jay Cutler can show some consistency, they could prove me wrong. I wouldn’t bet on that happening though.
  
AFC SOUTH
                  As much as I wish I could put Houston on top in the South, it will probably be Indianapolis. Andrew Luck is an elite QB (Mind you, still not on the level of Brady, Peyton, or Rodgers). They have added several new weapons around him, and have some fortunate scheduling to play both the Patriots and Broncos at home.
Andrew Luck

                  Houston is fast becoming Foxborough-south. Bill O’Brien and his staff have a strong New England pedigree. They are instilling that same ethos deep in the heart of Texas. Adding Vince Wilfork makes that front 4 very, very scary. Their starting QB is up in the air, but I think the Texans will turn some heads.
                  Tennessee is saddled with a young offense, but a vastly improved defense. They won’t put up too many fights, but it will be interesting to watch this defense improve and also the progression of Mariota into an NFL starter.
                  I guess I should say something about Jacksonville. They have one of the easier schedules in the league, that’s a big help. They also have one of the younger teams in the league. They will improve and they will win some games. Bortles has to turn a corner to make this happen.

NFC SOUTH
                  This is a tough division to call. I think that, ultimately, New Orleans will get the edge. They have oodles of talent and they also have Drew Brees. He is an old-school fighter. The biggest difference needs to be a return to dominance at home.
                  Carolina is going to give the Saints a fight. That is a quality team and we have all seen what Cam Newton can do when he decides to throw that offense on his shoulders. The man is a freak. The defense should improve on an impressive 2014 campaign.
Lavonte David

                  Atlanta is one of those teams that I just can’t put my finger on the reason why they aren’t better. They have talent, experience, they pay in a dome. They do have a reasonably light schedule and I see that defense improving under Dan Quinn.
                  Tampa Bay is going to be starting Jameis Winston. I don’t see it being a crash of Manziel-ian proportions, but I do predict a steep learning curve. The defense is solid, and that should keep the Bucs competitive in some of their games.

AFC EAST
                  New England will have Brady for all 16 games (I’m assuming…I could be wrong, no one actually has any clue what’s going on), and he is not happy with the league. That does not bode well for everyone else. Even if he sits the first 4, that means his legs and arm are even more fresh come playoff time. Losing Revis and Browner is a shot, but there is young talent in the secondary.
Aside: I know I said I wouldn’t talk about the case, sorry. And also, I’m sorry for the one mention of it earlier. End of aside
                  Miami made big strides in the offseason, some more questionable than others. Tannehill will need a career year to get this team over the hump and into the playoffs. They have a tough schedule but I’m sure that Ndamukong Suh will dominate.
Ndamukong Suh

                  Buffalo is my sleeper team. Even without a legitimate QB, that defense is going to be stout. Say what you want (and I have, over the years) about what a goofball Rex Ryan is…the man knows defense. If they sort the QB issue, this could be a dangerous team.
                  New York J-E-T-S...Holy CRAP!!! This is the best comedy troupe I have witnessed in a long, long time. Thank God for the Jets! I cannot fathom how this group functions. Who, in their right mind, allows their starting QB to get cold cocked in the locker room even if he deserved it?! Jets won’t be a contender.

NFC EAST
                  Dallas is going to be there this year. They will win this division, because Dez Bryant is now a happy (read: rich) man, a fairly easy schedule, and a fantastic defense. I don’t think it is much of a stretch to state that they are the cream of this division.
                  Philadelphia is another one of those teams who, on paper, doesn’t look all that good. Somehow, Chip Kelly is able to get results where it matters. There have been several key changes that will make for entertaining football in the City of Brotherly Love.
Niles Paul

                  New York Giants are a mystery. The NFC East, in general, is such a tough division to call. I think the Giants will win some big games and they always seem to turn it on as the temperature drops. Tom Coughlin continues to surprise and he will put a competitive team on the field, just missing some fingers.
                  Washington is the only team that I can comfortably, emphatically, rule out of winning the East. They are rebuilding and aren’t even fully sure of what they have in the way of materials. Is RG3 the way forward? Can he become a drop-back QB? We’ll see as the season unfolds.


                  Well, there you have it. My, mostly pulled out of thin air, predictions for each division. Let me know your thoughts, pro or con. Next week, I will talk about the playoffs and what we can expect in the run-up to Super Bowl 50.